Preparing for the bull market to rise, my thoughts on the stages of this cycle
Hello everyone, today we will talk about the cryptocurrency market that has attracted much attention recently. Last week, BTC completed its move up to its all-time high against the US dollar, which means we have entered the official stage of this bull market. Compared with the rebound and recovery starting from the bottom of the bear market, the sentiment in the official stage of the bull market will further heat up and the fluctuations will be more intense.
When the official stage of each bull market begins, there are some common characteristics, such as the gradual transition from BTC leading the rise to altcoins leading the rise, and Bitcoin's market share declining; the growth rate and increase of various currencies are more violent; becoming a social network The darling of the media and search engines, public attention is rapidly increasing.
So, what are the differences between this bull market and past cycles? The author tried to make logical deductions and put forward his own thinking and coping strategies. First of all, this bull market already has many driving factors from past cycles, such as the halving of BTC, loosening or loosening expectations of monetary policy, loosening regulatory policies, etc. But at the same time, with the development of this bull market so far, there is still no new asset model or business model of similar magnitude to smart contract platforms and Defi in the previous two bull market cycles.
The current Defi, Gamefi, NFT, and Depin, whether they are new or old projects, their product form and narrative have not evolved much compared to the previous round. They are more about iteration and repair of product functions. To put it simply, they are all " Old concept". The relatively new species that have emerged in this cycle are mainly two: BTC ecosystem and Web3 AI project.
So, how should we configure our investment strategy in this bull market? The author believes that it is more difficult to gain Alpha in this bull market, and the return-to-risk ratio of BTC+ETH in the main position will be better than in the previous round. In the short term, ETH may be a better choice, because BTC's ETF expectations have been digested in the existing price, and for ETH, the ETH\BTC exchange rate is still at a low level, and ETH's ETF expectations are gradually warming up. All make ETH's short-term odds better than BTC. In the long run, BTC may be a better allocation choice.
In general, the strategies I am currently considering are as follows:
· Higher allocation ratios on BTC and ETH
· Control the configuration ratio on old tracks such as Defi, Gamefi, Depin, and NFT
· In this round, there are new tracks that can be used as choices for gambling Alpha, such as Meme, AI and BTC ecology, etc.
In addition, in terms of cycles, the author believes that the biggest main rise year in this bull market should be 2024, not 2025. Therefore, it may be a more prudent strategy to increase positions and seize the moment. 25 years should be the year of harvest for us to reduce positions.
Finally, I wish everyone good luck in hunting in this bull market and return home with a full load. Everyone is welcome to express your opinions and experiences in the comment area and discuss the future trend of the cryptocurrency market together.
