I will write down my most intuitive view of the market. At present, the fluctuation above 68,500 is still a bullish trend, but for this market, if it cannot stand above 72,000 and break a new high before the end of April, I dare not be too optimistic about the market.
If the daily line continues to fluctuate at this position, it may form a small peak at a certain stage. At that time, the pancake may usher in a 20%-30% correction, but if it can go up as mentioned above, it can also break this situation (you can understand why it can be broken by reading the following carefully)
Let's talk about the interest rate cut first. I think the first interest rate cut this year may be in September. Recently, the inflow of ETF funds has decreased. Although many small banks in the United States have applied for ETFs, this fund will not come in immediately.
In my circle, there has never been a bloody plot of sending charcoal in the snow. There are only bitter and sweet and icing on the cake. The bitter and sweet means that it falls to a position where retail investors are miserable, and the main force and institutions come to enjoy the sweet rain.
The icing on the cake is to pull a deviation from the stock area and go out of the new bull trend. This fund will enter the market to further fuel the price increase.
But even if the deadlock cannot be broken, it does not mean that the bull market is over. It is just a staged high point. Don’t forget what I said above. If the first interest rate cut is in September, if this is true, whether the market falls back or not, it will reflect the market’s madness in July and August. (This depends on when the first interest rate cut occurs. Even if it is delayed, it does not mean that the bull market is over.
This view is my current view of the market. It does not mean what to do now. It is a reference for the market changes in the future.
