Although this halving event is also good news, compared with the previous two halvings, everyone should lower their expectations. Because this halving will not have a great impact on the supply of the pie, the pie has entered the trading era, and the mining era has long ended. At present, the total circulation of pie is close to 21 million pieces, 19.67 million pieces have been mined, and the mining rate has reached 93.7%. Next, let’s take a look at the impact of previous halving events on the market:
The first halving (2012/11/28): Ancient times, no longer mentioned;
The second halving (2016/07/09): Before the halving event, the price of the pie first increased by 70%, and then fell back by 30%. In the following week, the market did not fluctuate greatly, but entered a month-long decline, with a decline of 30%. Then, the pie began to rise to a historical level for one year and four months, finally reaching its peak in December 2017.
The third halving (2020/05/11): Before the halving event, the price of the pie first fell by 70% and then increased by 2.6 times. Then, after the halving event, the price of the pie did not fluctuate significantly, but remained within a 10% range for two months. After that, the pie started to rise by 40%. In May 2021, the pie finally peaked.
The fourth halving (2024/04/20): Before the halving event, the price of the pie first increased by 60%, and then fell back by 18%. At present, the halving event has not happened yet, we will wait and see.
In summary:
Halving events usually bring benefits to the pie, but expectations need to be tempered. Generally speaking, the long period after the halving event is definitely positive, but it takes about two months to materialize. In the three to four months before and after the halving, there was no obvious rise or fall in the trend of the pie. It should be noted that the 2020 halving event was affected by the epidemic, while the 2024 halving event was affected by the special circumstances of ETFs.
