After the inscription, the Solana ecosystem began to get out of control again. From Depin to Meme, it gives everyone faith and confidence.
Someone also made a picture of a big frog looking back and crying while driving, with "ETH" written on the car; then there was a solana hanging high on the road sign, which made me laugh to death.
This kind of debate often triggers a lot of heat. Both sides hold different opinions. Now it is the bottom and the top, because Sol has risen too much and they are very confident; the voices supporting Ethereum have become much quieter------so far It is easy for some misunderstandings to spread, making everyone confused about the situation.
First of all, Solana’s direct competitor is not Ethereum, but Ethereum’s layer 2.
If we look at the final outcome, 99% of the Ethereum homogeneous public chains on the market will be eliminated because they do not have long-term and dynamic moats.
Why do you say that? Investing actually looks at the end result, and then takes cognitive risks for the chance of failure.
The development history of public chains in the past is the expansion history of Ethereum. All public chains are developed around "performance" and "scalability".
But the problem is that from the perspective of the entire industry, his core proposition is to subvert traditional finance. Only disruption can reshape the entire industry and free up so much wealth, because wealth is redistributed...
Then what we should think about is, if the blockchain loses decentralization, what kind of competitive advantages does it have with traditional web2? After this round of inscriptions, all public chains talking about performance and TPS have been brought back to their original shape.
To take a step back, no matter how good the performance is, it is still a short one. Web2 relies on centralization to achieve lower costs and faster efficiency. This is the advantage of centralization---- ---Then how do you compare the performance and cost of a public chain with web2?
This is a paradox. Therefore, in the blockchain, the core infrastructure of the public chain must have decentralization as the highest priority. Otherwise, the entire industry will be unstable.
At present, no matter from which angle you look at it, the final certainty of Ethereum is greater than Solana. This is the core investment judgment, and all decisions are based on this judgment.
However, there is another but. The success of the crypto industry is not measured in months, but in years. It is a long-term plan of 10 to 20 years. So from the perspective of 1 to 5 years, the main theme of the entire industry is financial ponzi that continues around fee activities.
To put it nicely, it is a process in which a concept is put on the market and causes a bubble to blow up/pop. In this process, due to the quality and structural components of market participants, a lot of speculation opportunities will appear.
As for this kind of speculation opportunity for retail investors, it comes from the undervaluation of the primary market to the market value of the secondary market blown up by bubbles in the bull market.
Having said this, I have to emphasize one point again. As for the market value of a project, the influence of retail investors is minimal. What really has a big impact on market value are rating agencies. Because they will affect the valuation expectations of institutions in the primary market and determine whether any institution will pay at the expected valuation.
In the past, the multiples on the public chain were very high because the original projects were all in ICO and the primary market valuation was too low. After 19 to 20 years of waiting for a large number of institutions to enter the market, there are many prostitutes and few prostitutes, so public chain projects have been pushed to sky-high prices.
Then VCs began to raise their own funds. At this time, there were no retail investors at the first level of public chain projects. They were all promoted by star institutions and small institutions took over. The valuation of the primary market was sky-high. How big can you expect the secondary market to be? Space?
On the other hand, the institutions of public chain projects have gathered together, and the singularity effect in the encryption industry has not yet exploded. Ethereum is in a situation where it becomes Kabi every bull market. Public chain projects are the most durable and money-burning track. This also means that although they are speculative tracks, they are still very sustainable.
It’s just that the opportunities on the public chain track will become fewer and fewer, and they will become more and more certain. It is said that there are fewer and fewer because, except for the super slump caused by industry linkage, no one has any chance. It is said that it is becoming more and more certain, because after every slump, except for BTC and ETH, there is no chance to mention The track that confidence says will rebound is the public chain track.
This is the speculative logic of public chains.
Of course, in the future, the encryption world will allow less decentralized public chains to undertake some on-chain social activities, but this share will ultimately be far less than that of Ethereum, and the law of the dark jungle will amplify the Matthew Effect.
In the end, the encryption world will be composed of Ethereum + characteristic public chain + cross-chain public chain. Among them, the total number of characteristic public chains may account for 30%, and Ethereum alone may account for 50%.
Then the public chain with the best characteristics is between 20% and 50% of the market value of Ethereum. And more certain.
So it seems that Solana is the most likely public chain to become Longyi. Technically speaking, it has been recognized by many top DeFi founders. From the perspective of the project team, it has always been able to keep up with market hot spots in the past, from NFT to Inscription to Depin, which shows that the developers are very capable.
But if Sol wants to reach 50% of Ethereum, then it will be more than twice. If Ethereum reaches the previous high, sol will be more than 4 times, but the current situation may be more than twice ------- because the previous high of sol is only 259U .
So at this stage, it is inappropriate to chase high SOL. The market has not yet seen so much money pouring in, and funds are in a state of rotation. Just the billions from retail investors are rotating, there are more prostitutes and fewer clients.
Let me talk about another data. Judging from the current price of BTC, 90% of the BTC holding addresses are profitable. The market will not let so many people make money. There will be a correction. At that time, it is a very good choice to allocate some Sol. .
The above is my opinion about Ethereum and Solana. To be honest, my perspective is different from most people. In the same time dimension, no one can judge the current level. Everyone only looks at the price increase-------but this is the most meaningless thing.
How far you can see determines the probability of choosing the target correctly; and whether you can resist greed and panic determines your multiplier.
Investing is nothing more than that. What I can teach are these two points.
