Original author: @lanhubiji
Original source: X
Note: The original text comes from a long tweet posted by @lanhubiji.
Foreword: Judging from ethdenver and the trends this year, modularization is the most far-reaching change trend in the blockchain after BTC and eth.
Modularization not only includes some projects based on the evolution of cosmos technology (such as tia, dym, etc., there are many more on the way in the future...), but also includes Ethereum L2/L3, BTC L2, cross-chain, etc. These different projects focus on different levels, but gradually break down the walls of the original isolated monomer chain and move towards partial integration.
In this case, the situation and level of competition will gradually change. The original moat will be gradually broken and reorganized and evolved through integration. That is, the uniqueness of blockchain projects is becoming increasingly important. Otherwise, it will gradually lose its position in the wave of modularization.
1. Melee for 2-3 years
With the arrival of modular blockchain, the DA layer, execution layer and even settlement layer will enter a period of great melee. After about 2-3 years of melee, some basic projects will be precipitated, and based on these basic projects, the entire The underlying infrastructure of the crypto space. These infrastructures form deeper and deeper moats over time unless disruptive technologies emerge.
2. The entry window for new high-performance blockchain projects is basically closed
In 2-3 years, unless there is a breakthrough technology, the narrative of the new single blockchain will basically end. Whether it is a single blockchain or a high-performance blockchain, it is difficult for new entrants to gain a position.
3. Existing high-performance monomer chains need to find an indispensable position
In this case, even existing high-performance public chains need to find their own foundation in this chaotic pattern, otherwise they will easily lose their original moats. According to the evolution of modular blockchain, the pressure on high-performance public chains should be great. Compared with security, the irreplaceability of performance itself is weaker.
4. Ethereum will also be affected
Ethereum itself will also be impacted, especially the DA layer and execution layer, but this is also determined by the blockchain itself. No single blockchain can solve all problems, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, both have balance Yes, it is inevitable that part of the value will be cut away.
However, Ethereum has the scarcest resource (security) in the entire encryption field, and it is indispensable.
5. Possible evolution
One possible evolution is that Ethereum and Bitcoin will provide the most basic settlement layer services for the entire encryption field. There may also be opportunities for a few L1s to have some settlement layers; the DA layer will also experience full competition in the early stages, including Ethereum, EigenDA, Celestial, Near, Avail, etc. The execution layer mainly occurs in Ethereum L2 (op, arb, strk, zksync, blast...), high-performance public chains (Solana, avalanche, aptos, sui...), etc., as well as a large number of new entrants. The btc L2 project is on the way.
6. The End of the Savage Age in Crypto: Modularity and Mass Adoption
With the arrival of modular blockchain, Ethereum and Bitcoin are gradually evolving into providers of underlying security services. There are also other DA layer, execution layer and settlement layer projects that provide different levels of services to meet applications with different needs.
The blossoming of blockchain mainly occurs at the application layer, not the infrastructure. Of course, these will also have appropriate decentralization, but it will not be a hundred flowers blooming, but partial decentralization.
After the modularization of this cycle, the blockchain infrastructure competition comes to an end. Competition at the encryption application layer will become even more intense over the next decade. These include game, social, defi, nft, AI, sharing services, etc. This is the beginning of large-scale adoption in the field of encryption. It will only take 2-3 years before the field of encryption will gradually move towards large-scale adoption.
From 2009 to 2026, for more than ten years, it was basically a wild era in the field of encryption, full of speculation. However, during this period, the underlying infrastructure was gradually improved, and the field of encryption gradually moved towards large-scale adoption.
(The above is a one-sided view and cannot be used as investment advice)
