The countdown to the Bitcoin halving is less than 50 days. Many people are wondering whether Bitcoin will plummet before the halving, and whether the previous bull market 3.12 plunge and bloodbath will happen again.
So today, we will logically analyze why we think there will be a sharp decline, what are the bases that are valid and which are unfounded?
Reason 1 for thinking there will be a sharp drop: There was a 312 sharp drop before the start of the bull market in 2020, based on history
Using history as a mirror can reveal the ups and downs. To make a comparison, it is natural to use the overall history of Bitcoin as a mirror. Taking it out of context is biased.
Among the two complete bull and bear waves of Bitcoin, the first bull market started in August 2015 as a slow bull. There was no calf market before that. They were all bottom shocks, so it can be seen that there was no big drop.
Before the start of the bull market in 2020, Bitcoin first experienced a small bull market, with an overall increase of nearly 4 times, and then suffered a sharp drop of 3.12
It is concluded that, at least from the current history, Bitcoin suffered a sharp decline before the halving. Once it did not happen, but once it did happen, then the probability can be defined as 50%, not 100%
Reason 2 for thinking there will be a big drop: Bitcoin has already risen above 60,000 US dollars, and there is no decent big drop, so there will definitely be a big drop.
The main rhythm of the bull market itself is that prices continue to break new highs. There is no trend indication or regulation. If Bitcoin rises above 60,000, it must fall sharply.
If the market trend is healthy, it must rise and fall. Therefore, the overall trend of Bitcoin in 2023 has been to rise a little, then pull back and fluctuate, digest the selling pressure from above, fully accumulate strength, and then move up a step, rather than all at once. The tone went from US$15,500 to US$60,000
This basis is obviously untenable and cannot withstand scrutiny.
Reason 3 for thinking there will be a sharp drop: The market will not keep rising, and retail investors cannot make money all the time.
Yes, the market will not keep rising, so there will be numerous corrections along the way, but there is an essential difference between corrections ≠ sharp falls.
Secondly, we can look around us to see if most of the retail investors in the currency circle are on the bus. Are there more people with heavy positions or liquidated positions? There are more people with short positions who think there will be a big drop.
Only by comparison can you know whether you belong to the 20% group or the 80% group
Reason 4 for thinking it will plummet: Bitcoin will plummet after halving
So in terms of Bitcoin’s mechanism, does the halving have to go through a big drop to be completed? Or, what impact will a lack of a big drop have on Bitcoin?
Friends who understand the mechanism of Bitcoin should know that before the Bitcoin halving, whether it falls sharply or not, it will not affect its halving or operation.
The above are some reasons why the market generally believes that there will be a sharp decline. So after we analyze them one by one, what do you think? Welcome to leave your opinions in the comment area
Whether you think it will fall sharply or not, I hope everyone will analyze it rationally instead of following others' opinions, which will easily lead to losses.
What I fear most is that I don’t think carefully and follow other people’s ideas. In the end, I miss the market and learn nothing.
You have your own opinions. It has nothing to do with right or wrong, good or bad. They are all your own opinions. You can then make corresponding trading plans and risk plans. As long as you can withstand the consequences in the end.
Finally, walking alone is lonely, and the bull market is coming. The Qiqi no-threshold small circle welcomes everyone to join us. Let’s move forward hand in hand and meet the uncertainty of the future with a certain group.#sol #BTC $BTC
