道路是曲折的，但終點是確定的 · 加密周刊
1、宏觀環境
1.1. 升息預期
3月21日凌晨，聯準會如期召開利率決議。 符合大家的預期，利率維持不變。 維持5月目標利率在525~550bps的機率為93%。 宏觀環境沒有改變，利率仍處於高位。 還是那句話，沒有消息就是好消息，不斷創造新高的那斯達克指數也預示著市場的繁榮。
此外，鮑威爾發出鴿派訊號，表示今年會選擇適當的時機降息。
1.2. 降息預期
首次降息時間為6月12日，機率為69.4%，較上週上升15.3%。 此外，年底預計將兩次降息，總計降幅50bps，顯示今年市場將壓制貨幣政策，並將更加寬鬆。 ……
2、減半週期
2.1. 減半倒數
距離BTC減半還有29天。 此次減半意味著礦機停工價將從目前的26814.87翻倍至53629.74。 也就是說，今年4月21日，BTC價格極有可能會在53629.74上方。
4年減半週期包括2年多頭和2年熊市。 牛市從減半前半年開始，一直持續到減半後一年半左右。 牛市已經開始6個月了。
2.2. 長期持有比例
超過一年未轉讓的BTC被歸類為長期持有。 近一年半以來，長期持有數量呈上升趨勢。 目前長期持有量佔BTC總流通量的67.2%。 從最高點70.2%下降了3%，已連續113天下降。 每一次多頭市場都有類似的趨勢，價格越漲越高，而長期持有的比例卻逐漸減少。 ……
2.3. 比特幣ETF
近4天BTC ETF不斷流出，每天有1000到4000個BTC流出，主要是灰階GBTC流出，其他10隻ETF基本上都是小額流入。 看來灰度的套利還沒有出貨完畢，不過近期灰度的流出量已經開始萎縮。 套利訂單應該快完成了。 ETF的交易量每天已超過90億美元。 可以說，華爾街這次獲得了BTC的定價權，交易所的餘額可以放一邊了。 主要看ETF的餘額。
2.4. 穩定的貨幣流通
It can be seen that as the price of BTC rises, OTC funds are obviously accelerating their entry into the market, resulting in an increase in the circulation of stablecoins. Due to the addition of BTC spot ETFs in this round, many OTC funds can enter directly through US dollars. , so the increase is not much
3. K line
3.1. Weekly K-level 20-day moving average
The 20-day moving average generally determines the overall trend in the next few weeks to months. The current price of BTC spot is 64170, and the value of the 20-day moving average is 4764.
The K-line has broken through the 20-day moving average for 22 weeks, and the historical backtest winning rate of the 20-day moving average is almost 100%. It can be considered that we are now in the middle of the bull market.
3.2, 9 god index
It is currently 1.54. When the 9-Shen Index is lower than 0.45, it is in the bottom-buying range. It has now broken away from the bottom range below 0.45 and is in the starting stage of a bull market. According to the rules, when this round is around 5 or 6, it is basically It is the high level of this market.
3.3. ETH2.0 pledge
The current ETH pledge rate has reached a record high of 34.92%. Including the total pledged ETH in the DeFi ecosystem, the cumulative pledged ETH exceeds 40%. This is a very scary thing. Due to the setting of this economic model, combined with the ETH spot ETF, According to expectations, ETH’s performance in this round is likely to exceed that of BTC.
3.4. ETH2.0 burning
Since the ETH Merge, a total of 1.578 million ETH has been burned, and 451,000 ETH has been deflated, which is equivalent to 1.57 billion U.S. dollars. This story will continue to be repeated in the bull market, and it is also the easiest to understand story in encryption!
In addition, based on the current burning rate of about one month, the total amount of ETH will drop to less than 120 million.
4. Emotions
4.1. Panic and Greed Index
It is currently 75, which is considered a relatively safe value in the bull market. The recent continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs has caused the panic and greed index to rise to around 80 and fluctuate. Focus on values exceeding 80. If it exceeds 80, be careful of the risk of a correction.
The short-term top and bottom can be judged by the panic and greed index. When the panic and greed index reaches above 80, it is generally in the top range, and when the panic and greed index reaches below 20, it is in the bottom range.
4.2. Unrealized profit-loss ratio of the network
The current value is 0.58. You can see that when the color of the K line turns green, it has been in the stage before the start of a big bull market every time in history, indicating that it is officially in the early stage of a bull market.
1) When this indicator is <span it means that holding BTC is at a loss on average, the market sentiment is depressed, and historically it is the bottom range.
2) When this indicator is between 0.75 and 1, it means that holding BTC is on average in a state of substantial profit, and enthusiasm is maintaining the price, which is historically the top range.
