According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, current mining costs using the Antminer S19 XP will rise from $40,000 to $80,000 after the Bitcoin halving in mid-April.
The Bitcoin halving is a landmark event that occurs every 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years. The halving event cuts the block reward received by miners in half. In addition to indirectly affecting the price of Bitcoin, the halving event also significantly affects miner behavior, as mining costs double to obtain the same number of Bitcoins.
After the May 2020 halving, the price for miners to continue mining profitably rose to over $30,000, but the price of Bitcoin also surged to a new all-time high of $69,000 during the same cycle.
As of April 6, the average cost of mining a Bitcoin was $49,902, while the Bitcoin price was over $70,000 at the time of writing. After the halving on April 20, the average mining cost will rise to over $80,000, and the Bitcoin price must be above that in order for miners to continue to be profitable.
Historically, Bitcoin prices have seen multiple increases after halvings. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin prices increased by about 9,000% to $1,162.
After the 2016 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by about 4,200% to $19,800, while after the 2020 halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by nearly 683% to $69,000.
As a result, miners have remained profitable despite the fear of bankruptcy after each halving. Halving events also render many mining machines obsolete as they cannot compete with the high hash power requirements.
After each halving, there is a period when the price of Bitcoin is below the price at which miners can make a profit. This period is full of uncertainty, the sale of mining equipment increases, and many small and individual miners often go bankrupt.
However, as market supply decreases and demand increases, prices rise and are often higher than the average mining cost for miners.
