回顧我過去對未來的預測，很明顯我的專欄代表了許多一廂情願的想法。 就像奧斯卡王爾德曾經說過的，除了誘惑他可以抵抗任何事情，我可以預測任何事情，只要不是關於未來的事情。
儘管我對某一年會發生什麼的判斷經常是錯誤的，但我確實認為我的一些主要預測在方向上是正確的。 我也不甘於當旁觀者。 我正在建立區塊鏈業務和技術，其明確目的是影響未來的道路。
這篇文章是 CoinDesk 的「Crypto 2024」預測套件的一部分。 Paul Brody 是安永全球區塊鏈負責人兼 CoinDesk 專欄作家。
我正在努力建構的未來是建立在公共以太坊生態系統之上的，具有強大的、符合監管要求的商業交易和有意義的隱私保護。 在這種開放、審查和抗壟斷的模型中，我們可以建立一個通用的業務基礎設施，使業務互動成為簡單、可擴展且可靠的體驗。 在未來的願景中，金融服務很容易整合並服務於其預期目的：將資本輸送到從新創公司到綠色能源專案的有用專案。
這裡的道路比我想要的要慢得多，但進步是真實的。 我在這個領域工作了 10 年，其中 8 個在安永擔任這個職位，我們看到企業擁抱代幣化，以太坊已經成為全球標準，許可鏈的時尚雖然沒有消亡，但正在慢慢褪色。
企業也接受了法定貨幣和加密貨幣，生態系統已在很大程度上克服了 L2 的可擴展性挑戰。 我們在利用零知識工具和應用程式解決隱私挑戰的道路上也取得了顯著的進展。
像往常一樣，大部分的進展都是在加密貨幣冬天的黑暗時期取得。 我們還沒有走出冬天，但我希望我們離冬天不遠了。 事實上，我認為從 2024 年 6 月開始在歐洲逐步實施加密資產市場 (MiCA)，這是我們邁向下一個區塊鏈夏季之路上的一個重要里程碑。
我對即將到來的夏天有三個希望，我稱之為「預測」。
永續夏季
首先，事實證明今年夏天更具可持續性。 雖然宏觀經濟變化肯定影響了之前的區塊鏈夏季，但我相信其他問題產生了更大的影響，包括以太坊等生態系統達到其容量限制並產生高額費用、欺詐浪潮以及機構資本池的限制。
This time could be different. L2s have given Ethereum vast capacity, regulators around the world are unlocking institutional capital flows such as pension funds while simultaneously giving investors greater protections from rug-pulls and frauds. These measures are still immature and there are no financial ecosystems without fraud and risk, but in the next summer Ethereum and crypto will look and feel much closer to the rest of the financial ecosystem.
Convergence of stablecoins and CBDCs
My second prediction is that we will start to see the world's central banks start to converge upon both regulated stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as the preferred approach to implementing CBDCs. This won't be a result of regulators suddenly embracing decentralization and individual control. It will just be a practical choice.
Nearly all CBDC plans today are connected to tokenized, but centralized systems ̅̅almost none of which plan for real programmability. As a result, central banks are finding that while CBDC prototypes and pilots do work, technically, their "value-add" over existing Real Time Gross Settlement systems is quite limited.
None of the ways to "fix" these shortcomings look very appealing. For central banks to build fully programmable and open systems on a par with Ethereum, seems like a monumental technical challenge and deploying a single national coin onto a public network invites potential hacking risks.
Read more: Paul Brody - Under the Hood, 2023 Was a Highly Constructive Year for Crypto
There will be some cases where public sector managed CBDCs will go ahead and have compelling value propositions. I believe these will be most gripping in countries that have not yet implemented national real-time payments (there aren't many) or those where governments want to see more intense (and low cost) competition in the consumer payments space. The global consumer payments market is highly consolidated and, in many countries like the U.S. and Canada, payment fees look remarkably high compared to low-cost leaders such as Australia.
Despite these challenges and the lack of a clear value proposition, many central banks seem determined to deploy both retail and wholesale CBDCs. I confess I don’t understand what is driving this push, but am coming to suspect that the push towards CBDCs has more to do with gaining additional power and control over the financial system, than as something that really solves a major problem.
Even with a CBDC, I believe regulated stablecoins are coming as well. CBDCs won’t “quench” the demand for blockchain-based programmable money that can be used in DeFi services or for digital asset purchases.
Industrial applications progress
最後，希望看到工業應用不斷進步。 這是你能得到的最慢、最無聊的進展，但它正在發生。 企業很容易被最近的一些加密貨幣交易所等醜聞嚇倒，但我希望，隨著記憶的褪色和解決方案的改進，我們將看到採用的穩定重新加速。
我不能向你保證 2024 年夏天會到來，但春天肯定已經在空氣中。
