2024 年將成為以太坊區塊鏈史上最重要的一年。
除了美國可能批准以太坊 (ETH) 現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 之外，今年還將標誌著該網路自 2022 年合併以來的第一個牛市週期。
此更新使 ETH 在網路使用率較高期間出現通貨緊縮。
相關：以太坊 ETF 的推出比您預期的要早
自合併以來，0.2% 的以太幣供應已被銷毀，隨著網路使用量的增加，這個數字將在未來幾個月進一步增加。
自合併以來的 ETH 供應。來源：Ultra Sound Money
此外，下一次以太坊網路更新——以太坊改進提案 4844——計劃於今年進行。它的目標是使圍繞以太坊構建的整個第 2 層 (L2s) 區塊鏈生態系統的成本降低 10 倍。
這將是這個週期的主要轉折點，它將帶領以太坊和 Layer 2 進入歷史上最大的一年。
這個想法很簡單：如果沒有 L2，以太坊就無法擴展。如果沒有子鍊和專業的業務開發團隊，L2 就無法以所需的速度成長。
要理解這一點，值得退一步問： 什麼是以太坊？
與比特幣（BTC）不同，以太幣不僅僅是一種資產，其內在價值僅與區塊鏈的功能相關。
以太坊更符合共享和可程式資料庫或去中心化應用程式（DApp）開發平台的概念。因此，要使其有價值，就必須在其上存在有價值的應用。
其中一些應用程式已經存在，並且是從 Web3 原生出現的，但絕大多數將來自傳統公司調整其係統並與區塊鏈整合。
這是以前從未實現過的。目前鏈上存在的主要非原生 Web3 殺手級應用程式有哪些？在上一次牛市之後，有多少公司認真維護了他們的鏈上應用程式？
他們缺席的主要原因是很少有人能夠“用區塊鏈思考”，能夠看到問題並將區塊鏈視為解決方案，或能夠充分理解代幣以思考與之相關的商業機會。
在過去的周期中，並不能始終如一地提供指導這些參與者的幫助，因為——由於區塊鏈的廣泛性和不可知性——大多數參與者都是非常通才的。
結果，一些操作不可行，因為它們與 meme 幣和不可替代代幣（NFT）繁榮爭奪區塊空間。
公司渴望嘗試區塊鏈，但不知道如何進行，並且需要區塊鏈本身或其他 Web3 公司的業務開發團隊的指導。
Business development segmentation is usually done by region, resulting in these teams having to cater to 20 different sectors, each with distinct needs and complex applications. The outcome was superficial guidance that ultimately doomed these projects over time.
But in 2024, the game will change.
With more leadership positions at large companies — with a much more mature mindset about how to build on-chain — the blockchain ecosystem is going through a period of specialization.
Related: 3 bull market narratives for 2024 that you haven’t heard about yet
Today, it is evident that the largest L2 blockchains are segmenting into subchains with specific configurations and specialized teams and structures for onboarding specific niches.
Using Polygon as an example, instead of having just one generalist blockchain for all applications and a regional business development team, Polygon is already diversifying into several subchains dedicated to specific use cases.
Until now, blockchain scaling had 2 paradigms: Monolithic & ModularIntroducing the next one: AggregationA novel solution combining the benefits of monolithic & modular designs by unifying liquidity via safe, near-instant atomic cross-chain txs using ZK proofs.Feb Mainnet … pic.twitter.com/mE0qssoWyJ
— Polygon | Aggregated (@0xPolygon) January 24, 2024
How is this happening? Polygon is providing the market with its Chain Development Kit (CDK) — on which subchains are built — and all liquidity is connected by an aggregation layer.
In recent weeks, Polygon has announced:
B2, a CDK chain focused on building rollups for Bitcoin
OEV Network, a CDK chain aimed at capturing all oracle extractable value (OEV)
Hypr, a CDK chain with a focus on gaming
Libre, a CDK chain dedicated to the issuance of tokenized assets for institutions
FireDrops, a CDK chain designed for loyalty actions for FlipKart, India’s largest e-commerce.
And the same path is being followed by all the other major L2 blockchains. What is referred to as CDK by Polygon is called “Op-Stack” by Optimism, for example.
Blockchains based on OP Stack. Source: CryptoRank
The paradigm shift is brutal, and 2024 promises to be a major battle, as a lot of specialized subchains and business development teams from each of these major L2 blockchains will be competing in the same segments.
With that said, 2024 has everything to become the year when the killer apps of Web2 are finally seen emerging in Web3.
The year will mark the beginning of the retention cycle, where companies and users will start and continue to incorporate blockchain into their daily lives.
It’ll be the year of the L2 blockchains and, consequently, the biggest year for the Ethereum network.
Lugui Tillier is the chief commercial officer of Lumx, a Web3 studio in Rio de Janeiro that counts BTG Pactual Bank, the largest investment bank in Latin America, among its investors.
本文僅供一般參考之用，無意也不應被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點、想法和意見僅代表作者個人觀點，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和意見。
