比特幣 (BTC) 在 2 月最後一周開始突破 52,000 美元——創下了兩年來的單週收盤紀錄。
隨著多頭推動市場越來越接近歷史高點，比特幣價格強勢幾乎沒有逆轉的跡象。
前方的道路將會發生什麼事？
交易員和市場觀察者對於時機的爭論一如既往，但共識越來越多地呼籲進一步上漲。
迄今為止，比特幣已經成功地度過了今年重大事件的動盪，距離區塊補貼減半僅兩個月了，人們押注比特幣將以經典方式反彈。
更遠的情況看起來不太可預測——本週分析警告稱，比特幣/美元可能會在2024 年晚些時候觸頂，然後開始「長期」熊市，而減半對價格走勢的整體影響也在顯微鏡下觀察。
再加上美國及其他地區動盪的宏觀經濟和地緣政治現狀，更明顯的是，加密貨幣波動催化劑隨時都在等待。
Cointelegraph 重新審視了影響 BTC 價格走勢的主要問題，以及這些問題在 2 月月度收盤前的未來幾天可能會如何發揮作用。
每週收盤價使比特幣回到 2021 年 11 月
根據 Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據，比特幣在 2 月 18 日取得了絕對勝利的每週收盤價，為 2021 年 11 月以來的最高收盤價，約為 52,100 美元。
BTC/美元 1 週圖表。來源：TradingView
這象徵性地使市場接近當時欣喜若狂的頂峰——69,000 美元的爆炸頂峰。
對於本週將如何結束的預測各不相同，如果市場在最後一刻反轉，雷達上會出現不同的支撐位。然而，最終波動不大，導致亞洲交易時段持股 52,000 美元。
「比特幣在 52,000 美元盤整，總市值為 1.9T 美元，」交易公司 MNTrading 的創始人兼首席執行官 Michaël van de Poppe 在 X（前身為 Twitter）上的總結中寫道。
Van de Poppe 表達了目前關於短期 BTC 價格表現的流行理論——在返回測試近期漲幅的勇氣之前，價格又上漲了一步。
「比特幣的上漲空間看起來相對有限，」他繼續說道。
「我的總體觀點是繼續上漲至 54-58K 美元，然後是盤整和更廣泛的修正。之後，轉向山寨幣。”
儘管如此，在過去一周的大部分時間裡，現貨市場都沒有出現變化，52,000 美元及其相關的阻力流動性形成了「黏性」焦點。
鏈上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的貢獻者 VentureFounder 也加入了近期預測，同意 58,000 美元的目標。然而，他的基礎是圍繞著相對強度指數（RSI）行為。
“If all follows, then the last BTC RSI peak signals breakout of downward channel, will push price higher (~$58k), then followed by a correction and this level will be made into strong support going forward (~$50k),” he concluded.
#Bitcoin cycles are never the same, but it often rhymes: 1) Weekly RSI completing a bottoming movement, from lower highs, lower lows to higher highs and higher lows 2) Following the cycle top, The first three RSI peaks > 50 will have a strong reaction at resistance (either… pic.twitter.com/OW59mXPjdL
— venturefoundΞr (@venturefounder) February 19, 2024
Over the weekend, Venturefounder, whose BTC price takes tend to err on the side of caution in the current environment, acknowledged the strong performance despite the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) making no purchases.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, these form a major change to market dynamics, which has been in place for barely a month.
“Honestly Bitcoin is holding up pretty well considered there is no daily 9-figure spot #BTC ETF buys on the weekend,” he summarized.
“I think a degree of that is non-ETF buyers expecting continuation of the strong ETF net inflow and therefore buying the dip, essentially trying to front run the price next week.”
Halving cycles spark contention
The debate around the halving and its impact on price is getting ever more vocal with less than two months to go.
For some, price performance in recent months — especially amid the emergence of institutional access via the U.S. spot ETFs — calls for a reevaluation of standard Bitcoin market cycles.
The four-year circle revolving around halving events, they suggest, is seeing a challenge thanks to shifts in price coming at unusual times.
#Bitcoin has made historyFor the first time ever, BTC has closed a weekly candle above the .618 FIB retrace from cycle high to cycle low prior to the halving: https://t.co/URAGEtuWKJ pic.twitter.com/MuhXMdrHF9
— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) February 19, 2024
As Cointelegraph reported, others see the current cycles as “business as usual” — a cycle top should come months after the halving or even later.
In some of his latest X engagement, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto continued that narrative.
“Is this time REALLY different? OR is it possible that this time is the SAME as all the prior times except people *think* it’s different because they have erroneously been using the halving as the single point of reference for our cycles?” he queried.
Credible Crypto linked to a previous post from late last year in which he imagined a top in late 2024, followed by what he called the “first major secular Bitcoin bear market.”
“In the coming months I expect further continuation upwards, at a more aggressive pace than we have seen thus far, as we build up to what will be a blow-off top for the books to conclude this multi-year cycle,” part of the post read.
Before April’s halving, however, there remains plenty of opportunity for gains, as envisioned by fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who notes that previous cycles saw a “pre-halving rally” beginning two months in advance.
“BTC has one final Pre Halving Retrace left,” he added last week.
“Historically, it tends to occur only a few weeks before the Halving.”
Bitcoin price comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X Global liquidity conditions favor crypto
Caution marks the mood among macro analysts this week after recent U.S. inflation data gave the Federal Reserve a major headache.
Prices, as shown by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), advanced more than expected in January.
Markets, which were previously confident that the Fed would U-turn on interest rate policy and reduce quantitative tightening (QT) as soon as March, quickly reevaluated the odds.
This in turn dampens the tone for risk assets, which appreciate increasing liquidity as a basis for investor interest. That said, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs this month, a certain divergence between market performance and macro reality continues to play out.
As Philip Swift, creator of Bitcoin statistics platform Look Into Bitcoin, noted, global liquidity conditions are conversely better than ever — a possible crypto catalyst in itself.
“We are getting closer to Global Liquidity making a new all-time high,” he showed on X earlier in February alongside a chart of M2 money supply.
“Arguably THE most important factor for a bull market. That's when the party really starts for bitcoin.”
Global M2 money supply s. BTC/USD chart. Source: Philip Swift/X
In the U.S., however, there remains plenty to unnerve markets and induce a more hawkish stance at the Fed prior to its next interest rates decision at the end of March.
This week will see jobless claims and the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting, alongside the S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) leading the pack, alongside various speaking appearances from Fed officials.
Key Events This Week:1. Presidents Day, Markets Closed - Monday2. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday3. S&P Global Services PMI data - Thursday4. Existing Home Sales data - Thursday5. Total of 5 Fed speaker events this week6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 18, 2024
“We're watching the Fed minutes for color on rate cut timing,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter announced in part of its weekly diary post on X.
“Rate cuts are now being pushed out to June.”
Bitcoin open interest matches 26-month record
Recent days have seen a new all-time high in open interest (OI) for CME Group’s flagship Bitcoin futures.
At $6.8 billion, OI saw a pronounced spike this month as ETF inflows surged and BTC price action delivered a return above key resistance levels.
Now, a similar phenomenon is playing out elsewhere.
根據 CoinGlass 的最新數據，2 月 19 日，交易所 OI 總額達到 228 億美元，創下比特幣 69,000 美元歷史高點以來的最高水平。
比特幣期貨未平倉合約（截圖）。來源：CoinGlass
近幾個月來，OI 飆升先於 BTC 價格上漲，但正如分析師指出的那樣，波動性可能是雙向的。
「比特幣正處於新的定位風險非常大的階段。所有代幣的未平倉合約均達到 2021 年高點水平，」CryptoQuant 撰稿人 JA Maartunn 上週警告。
“是的，價格可以走高，但風險回報率並不理想。”
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) 2024 年 2 月 12 日
應對快速下行風險的是融資利率和槓桿，兩者均保持在相對可控的水平，表明交易者總體上缺乏「非理性繁榮」。
加密貨幣情緒陷入“極度貪婪”
當談到跨加密貨幣情緒時，越來越多的跡象表明普通投資者正在達到一種欣快的狀態。
相關：比特幣價格在減半之前不太可能創下歷史新高——原因如下
加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數的最新讀數顯示，自 2021 年比特幣歷史高點以來，「貪婪」程度達到了最高水平。
上週，該指數的得分為 79/100，相當於“極度貪婪”，並短暫超過了 2021 年的水平。
截至撰寫本文時，恐懼與貪婪本身就是一個落後指標，其得分為 75/100。
加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數（截圖）。來源：Alternative.me
「絕對的看漲會帶來修正。到 2021 年，在看到 6.9 萬美元的 ATH 後，幾乎所有人都相信還有更多的上漲空間，BTC 地毯式下跌，」VentureFounder 週末對市場心理發表評論。
「到 2023 年 10 月，幾乎所有人都相信 BTC 將再次跌破 2.5 萬美元。比特幣在幾個月內翻了一番，沒有出現重大調整。”
從歷史上看，當恐懼與貪婪達到 90 或更高時，就會標誌著長期市場回調——這是自 2021 年第一季以來從未發生過的情況。
本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。
