比特幣（BTC）在 2 月 20 日經歷了大幅回調，從盤中高點 53,019 美元跌至低點 50,812 美元，跌幅高達 4%，有可能抹去過去 7 天的漲幅。
這種回調導致交易者重新評估加密貨幣市場的整體狀況，引發了關於山寨幣季節（altseason）是否到來的爭論。
比特幣/美元日線圖。 來源： TradingView 比特幣價格回檔的背後是什麼？
交易員和市場分析師認為，持續的價格暴跌是比特幣減半週期五個階段的一部分，比特幣可能會經歷減半前的回調，然後進入廣泛預期的減半後拋物線上升趨勢。
加密貨幣交易員兼分析師 Rekt Capital 在 2 月 15 日的 X 貼文中分享了以下圖表，稱比特幣在恢復上升趨勢之前還剩下「最後一次減半前回撤」。
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) 2024 年 2 月 15 日
獨立市場分析師 Sjuul 指出，比特幣的融資利率很高，警告交易者「預計會出現全面調整」。
“在我看來，這是我們都在尋找的逢低買入機會。”
市場情報公司 Santiment 指出，「中型交易員的重大舉動往往是」獲利了結和「逢低買進」的絕佳訊號。
“在過去兩週內，擁有 1 萬至 10 萬美元的 #stablecoin 持有者：增加了 4430 萬美元的 USDT。”
這表明他們可能準備逢低買入，以防出現回調。
USDC 和 USDT 10K-100K 供應量。 資料來源：Santiment 比特幣與山寨幣
山寨幣在過去 12 個月中表現出色，實現了兩位數和三位數的漲幅，其中一些表現優於比特幣。 其中一些在更短的時間內表現出了更好的性能。
根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，比特幣在過去 12 個月內上漲了 107%，Solana (SOL) 上漲了 308%，Avalanche 的 AVAX 上漲了 80%，Chainlink (LINK) 上漲了 136%。
鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 的最新數據顯示，雖然“BTC 和 ETH 處於領先地位，年初至今漲幅分別為 17.6% 和 18.2%”，但比特幣年初至今的表現超過了山寨幣市場總體表現帽。
Glassnode 分析師 Alice Kohn 表示：“山寨幣的總市值並未經歷同樣的表現，年初至今的增長還不到兩大主要貨幣的一半。”
比特幣與山寨幣年初至今的市值表現。 來源：Glassnode
Glassnode 指出，儘管 1 月現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准後，以太坊 (ETH) 的表現開始跑贏 BTC，但其表現在 2 月 8 日低於比特幣。
According to Glassnode, the performance of digital assets can also be tracked by using Realized Cap for each sector, a metric that “aggregates the cost basis value of all coins transferred on-chain.”
Glassnode notes that Bitcoin continues to display dominance seeing approximately “$20B in capital inflows per month at present.” As the chart below highlights, Bitcoin’s dominance has continued to grow with a 1000% surge in relative market cap since October 2023.
Market realized value next capital change. Source: Glassnode
“It is evident that capital moves down the risk curve into Altcoins at a slower pace compared to the rotation between the two major cryptocurrencies, a trend which appears to be in play once again,” notes the report. “Bitcoin continues to lead with over 52% market share of the total digital asset market cap.”
Related: Bitcoin holdings on Coinbase reach lowest level since 2015 as whales withdraw $1B BTC
How close is altseason?
On Feb. 18, independent analyst Stockmoney Lizards told his followers on the X social media platform that he believes “many #Altcoins are about to skyrocket in the next #Altseason.”
The analyst shared a chart showing that the altcoin market cap had scaled above a significant support area and entered into a bull run similar to the 10x returns experienced in 2021.
“We are close.”
Many #Altcoins are about to skyrocket in next #Altseason. We are close. pic.twitter.com/1uvRQdWqzU
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) February 18, 2024
Even though some signs are there, it may still be too early to confirm the altcoin season. Glassnode’s altseason indicator has shown positive momentum since October last year and turned positive on Feb. 4 after taking a pause during the sell-the-news event triggered by the Bitcoin ETFs approval in January.
Altcoin season indicator. Source: Glassnode
Interestingly, the indicator has remained positive since then, an indication that the market is now in a risk-on mode, showing the confidence that the investors have in the altcoins right now.
Data from Blockchain Center shows that only 59% of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed BTC during the last 90-day period. Although this index has been increasing over the last few days, it is still not enough to declare an altcoin season. For an altseason to be declared, this percentage has to move above 75%.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
Glassnode concludes, “our Altcoin Indicator suggests a more mature and possibly sustained uptick in Altcoin markets, however, it remains relatively concentrated in higher market cap assets at this time.”
This means that signs of an altcoin season as starting to merge, but it might be too early to make the call.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
