The lottery probability of the web2 game is too...not even a skin a hundred timesIf the EV of getting as many points as you recharge is regarded as 0, and the profit-loss ratio is regarded as 1, this lottery will have profit-loss ratios ranging from 1R, 1.2R, 17.76R, 33.76R, but as a player, you only know the big The probability of profit-loss ratio is very low, but we don’t know how low it will be. If the overall EV is only 0.01 or 0.02, then this kind of lottery is actually just an excuse to induce top-up.The fact is, I have drawn 100 times, and the EV is about 0.05, that is, I will get about 525 by recharging 500, and this 525 does not exist in the form of coupons. This 105 can only be consumed in another larger prize pool, and then form a new one. A round of negative-sum games...one link after another, the capital has mastered the casino's tricks.From this to the transaction, I think if this transaction is done right, the basic return may be 2R, the potential return may reach 3R, or even 5R, and the trial and error cost is -R. Before placing the order, the ev I calculated was very high, 0.5, 0.8 or even above 1 is possible, but in fact the probabilities of all situations are subjective, and there is no exact data to prove what the probability distribution of each situation should be.So the reality is that I only know that I have an advantage in this transaction, but I don't know how big the advantage is. If the advantage is too small, then the sample size needs to be expanded to accumulate profits. But this will lead to frequent transactions, which will affect the mentality and judgment, and then even the weak advantage will be gone.
