距離比特幣減半還有不到兩週的時間。
目前看來，這可能會在 4 月 20 日星期六發生，或者最遲在 21 日星期日發生，除非礦工提前開始關閉機器。
然而，隨著 BTC 市值的進一步上漲，礦工們應該盡量充分利用自己的機器，直到減半日到來，因此甚至可以預計到 19 日週五。
可以肯定的是，它會發生在區塊號 840,000，現在我們已經接近區塊號 838,300。也就是說，只剩下1700多個區塊，而平均每9分鐘（甚至更短）就會開採一個區塊，十幾天之內，剩下的1700個區塊就應該全部開採完畢。
預期減半對比特幣價格的影響
過去，已經發生的三次減半（2012年、2016年和2020年）都對比特幣的價格產生了正面影響。然而，這種效應在減半幾個月後才顯現出來，似乎並不為所有人所熟知。
事實上，不幸的是，許多現在以超過 70,000 美元購買 BTC 的人可能相信減半後價格會上漲更多，但事實可能恰恰相反。
從中長期來看，減半仍可能產生正面影響，但短期來看可能會產生負面影響。
特別是，如果現在購買的許多人是出於對短期效應的積極預期而這樣做的，那麼這種預期可能會在減半後的幾天裡令人失望。
目前的情況有可能是一種由於過度熱情和有點FOMO而產生的小泡沫，如果真是這樣，它仍然注定會爆炸。
另一方面，一個完全不同的討論是中長期可以做什麼，即減半何時真正開始對比特幣的價格產生影響。
然而，投機者不習慣等待這麼長時間，因此，如果他們的預期在減半後的幾天裡落空，他們可能會在過度熱情的推動下開始拋售現在購買的東西。
第四次減半後比特幣礦工面臨的問題
目前，隨著比特幣價格上漲，回到7萬美元以上，礦工們開始做生意了。
值得注意的是，周平均算力並未達最高值。事實上，算力衡量的是礦工之間的競爭程度，並在 3 月 12 日至 13 日期間達到最高水平，就在 BTC 價格創下 73,800 美元的歷史新高之前。
然而，目前水準僅略低（621 Eh/s 與 628 Eh/s 相比），可以肯定的是，如果價格回到高位，那麼算力記錄也將被打破。
The problem, therefore, will be after the halving, when the miners’ earnings will almost halve.
Fortunately, this is a widely anticipated and well-known event, so all miners already know how to behave. Most likely they will simply turn off the less efficient machines and sell the BTC accumulated so far by squeezing the most out of their machines.
Furthermore, in the weeks following the halving, the difficulty will be updated automatically, making the problem less and less serious, until it simply disappears altogether.
Only in the event that the price of BTC were to collapse, miners could really have big problems, because it is unpredictable.
Instead, as far as the halving of the BTC earned is concerned, this issue should have already been widely taken into consideration by all miners, so the problem from this point of view should already be under control.
The increase in fees
On the other hand, a completely different story is the one concerning the cost of on-chain Bitcoin transactions. This actually depends on the level of network congestion, which is not at all related to the halving.
The increase in the market value of BTC often leads to congestion, as it increases the number of transaction requests to be confirmed.
At this moment there are 120,000 transactions waiting to be validated by miners, and rarely more than 4,000 are validated per block.
Since a block is mined approximately every 9 minutes, it will take at least four and a half hours to clear the queue, and in the meantime, more will definitely be sent to be validated.
However, the fees are not particularly high.
For example, at the beginning of March the median had risen above $7 per transaction, while now it has dropped to $1.3. Still, in mid-March it was well above $3, so the situation in recent days has stabilized.
Today, however, fees could increase again, due to the increase in the price of BTC which increases the number of transactions.
Actually, even in the days immediately following the halving, fees could increase. In fact, it is possible that the hashrate will decrease, and therefore until the difficulty automatically decreases, the blocktime could rise above 10 minutes.
This would reduce the number of daily transactions validated by miners, effectively lengthening the queue of those waiting.
With the automatic adjustment of the difficulty, approximately every two weeks, this issue will be completely absorbed.
The Ordinals
It is worth noting that in the past few days, the transactions of Ordinals on the Bitcoin blockchain have increased again.
For now, this increase has not yet led to a significant increase in fees, but if it were to continue, it could do so.
Fortunately, the current fee level is not very high, so even in the event of a similar scenario, the increase could still be limited.
However, in the past there have been real flames, from this point of view, with very rapid and extensive increases in the number of Ordinals exchanged on-chain.
因此，不排除比特幣鏈上交易的費用在未來幾天可能會突然大幅上漲。
