The current trend of Bitcoin has reached a maximum of 48,000, and then dropped to a minimum of 38,500. From a technical point of view, it has reached the pressure level and support level. But when will it start to rise again? I think it must at least fully fluctuate in this range. First, To digest the pressure from above, the second is to wash out some speculative profits and unstable chips.
The high point of the range oscillation should be around 46,000, and I personally think the lowest point will not be lower than 32,000U. Counting from now on, February to April should be in the shock phase.
I think the resumption of the continuous weekly upward trend should be around May.
Why is it said that 234 is a shock and it is difficult to continue to rise?
1. The market has been rising weekly for several months, and there is a need for adjustment.
2. Bitcoin ETF has been cashed out
3. The benefits of Bitcoin’s halving are almost fully digested, and expectations are about to be fulfilled.
4. The Cancun upgrade will be launched in March.
Why did it start rising after April?
1. Adjust from a time perspective, the market will be healthier, chips will change hands sufficiently, and the cost of holding currency will further increase.
2. Ethereum ETF
3. After the Cancun upgrade, system efficiency has increased, and the application explosion has accelerated.
4. The arrival of interest rate cut expectations
Big events related to Web3 this month
There are much less certain big news this month than last month, because last month various ETF news served as the main tone, which directly affected BTC. Year-on-year, it is indeed as mentioned before: ETH has better odds.
At present, it seems that the most directly affected target is ETH, and the other one is BNB.
ETH: The deployment of the Cancun upgrade on the test network is coming to an end. If it goes well this time, it will also involve the specific time of deployment to the main network. Therefore, after it is settled, it will still focus on the basic logic of the Ethereum system being mobilized by the emotions of the incident = it has also been done before The news is that it will be deployed to the mainnet in February-March, which can be said to be the main narrative line of Q1.
BNB: The CZ hearing near the end of the month is very important to pay attention to, because the result will definitely directly affect the market sentiment and trend of BNB. On this basis, I predict that there will be a high probability of new currency mining and mining around this time node. Listing events help hedge & boost the impact of events.
