關於比特幣新一輪牛市可能已經開始的假設越來越多地流傳。
事實上，已經出現了小牛市，在不到四個月的時間裡，價格從不到30,000 美元漲到了約50,000 美元，自2023 年10 月15 日以來上漲了87%，不能簡單地將其視為正常反彈。
然而，當前的問題可能更為嚴重，以至於人們押注其可能會在 2021 年 11 月接近歷史高點（約 70,000 美元）回報。畢竟，50,000 美元是其跌至以下水平的水平：2021 年 12月，在真正的熊市開始之前。
70,000 美元假設：比特幣牛市即將到來嗎？
在專業的加密貨幣衍生品交易所 Deribit 上，週末開始出現多起 65,000 美元、70,000 美元甚至 75,000 美元的叫價。
參考點是 70,000 美元，這是最接近歷史高點 69,000 美元的整數，儘管實際上它的範圍是 65,000 美元到 75,000 美元。
這些都是賭注，或者更確切地說只是一些人認為可能的假設，而不僅僅是可能。
Galaxy 的 Kelly Greer 報告稱，未平倉合約集中在當前 50,000 美元左右，但 4 月至 6 月到期的期權也有 50,000 美元至 75,000 美元的看漲流動。
值得注意的是，4月中旬將出現比特幣第四次減半，這可能是目前小牛市的終點。
格里爾指出，這些資金流顯示有買家願意支付溢價來購買這些頭寸，這表明一些投資者對 BTC 持看漲觀點。
四月減半
所有這一切還需要增加另外兩個重要元素。
首先是比特幣2024年初的價格走勢與2021年初的相似性。三年前，那次真正牛市的峰值是4月的6.4萬美元。
然而，應該記住，牛市實際上是從 10,000 美元上方開始的，因此在 4 月的峰值時漲幅已超過 500%。然而，如果只考慮今年的前4個月，價格從1月的3萬美元上漲到4月的6萬美元以上，漲幅高達100%。
以2024年1月達到的38,000美元為參考，甚至2023年10月末的30,000美元為參考，如果新的+100%，價格將在大約60,000美元至75,000美元之間波動。
然後，就像在比特幣現貨上推出新的 ETF 時發生的情況一樣，一旦減半發生，通常的拋售消息可能會觸發，價格可能會下跌一些。
第二個因素正是減半的預期，這或許是ETF資金流入的基礎。
即使在這種情況下，一旦減半發生，此類流入可能會減少，從而導致修正。
There could therefore be a first phase of further growth until the halving in April, followed by an intermediate phase of correction or retracement until June.
The bearish hypothesis
However, there is also another hypothesis circulating, diametrically opposed.
According to some, reaching the psychological threshold of $50,000 could trigger sales for those who want to monetize their earnings.
In fact, practically everyone who purchased in 2023 and 2024 would be in profit, except for a portion of those who purchased yesterday. In the event that the dynamic that supported the price growth until yesterday were to be interrupted, these sales could cause the price to drop.
A lot revolves around the BTC purchases of ETFs, and this in turn depends on the influx of new capital into these new derivative products.
The above data would suggest a continuation of these purchases, but it should not be assumed that those who bought in recent weeks will decide not to sell in anticipation of even better prices.
The fact is that the demand for Bitcoin from ETFs is much higher than the amount of new BTC created daily through mining, and this gap is expected to widen with the halving, which will reduce the rate of new BTC creation.
Michael Saylor reported this during a recent interview with CNBC, claiming that there would be a whopping ten years of pent-up demand unleashed by these ETFs.
Bitcoin: the comparison with past bull runs
All of this, however, clashes with the comparison with the past.
Usually, in fact, in the year of the halving, there has never been a real big bull run.
All three past halvings have indeed been followed by a major bull run, but the following year. This time, however, the bull run may have already started even before the halving, and this difference perplexes many.
It could therefore also be not a real new major bull run, like those of 2013, 2017, and 2021, but a speculative mini-bubble like, for example, the one in mid-2019.
The problem with this interpretation, however, is that in the past, new all-time highs have always been achieved during a major bull run, and not during the mini-bubbles following the bear market.
In short, Bitcoin finds itself in an unprecedented situation, different from the past, due to a huge novelty that had never existed before (BTC spot ETFs in the USA).
This in theory could have the strength to completely disrupt the historical dynamics of the past three halvings, writing a whole new story in which the past may not repeat itself anymore.
It should not be forgotten that when the first gold ETFs were launched on the US financial markets, a bull run was unleashed that lasted for years.
