一月份推出的比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）未能提振價格，因為交易者關注的是灰階比特幣信託（GBTC）的資金流出，而忽略了剩餘 ETF 的淨流入。這表明交易者試圖賣出該訊息並在其頭寸上獲利。
然而，一個積極的跡像是，比特幣並沒有長期低於 40,000 美元的水平。這表明較低的水平繼續吸引投資者。逢低買入和逢高賣出可能會使比特幣在幾天內保持在區間內。比特幣的下一個主要催化劑是四月的減半。
每日加密貨幣市場表現。來源： Coin360
根據 CoinGlass 的數據，對多頭有利的另一個積極因素是，2 月比特幣平均月漲幅約為 12%。自2013年以來，比特幣僅在2014年和2020年2月出現負月報酬。
比特幣能否重現二月強勁的歷史表現？山寨幣會跟著比特幣走高嗎？讓我們分析一下前 10 名加密貨幣的圖表來找出答案。
比特幣價格分析
過去幾天，比特幣一直在 20 天指數移動平均線（42,365 美元）和上方阻力位 44,700 美元之間交易。
BTC/USDT 日線圖。來源： TradingView
20日均線已開始逐漸上行，RSI已升至正值區域，這對買家來說有較小的優勢。如果多頭突破 44,700 美元的關口，BTC/USDT 貨幣對可能會嘗試反彈至 49,000 美元。預計空頭將積極捍衛這一水平。
如果價格下跌並跌破 20 日均線，則表示空頭正試圖掌控局面。如果跌破 41,394 美元，拋售可能會加劇。隨後該貨幣對可能會跌至 40,000 美元，隨後跌至 37,980 美元。
以太幣價格分析
以太幣 (ETH) 仍停留在 2,100 美元至 2,400 美元的區間內，但多頭並未放棄，並試圖將價格推至上方阻力位之上。
ETH/USDT 日線圖。來源： TradingView
收盤價高於 2,400 美元將是走強的第一個跡象。這可能會吸引更多買盤，將 ETH/USDT 貨幣對推向 2,700 美元。如果價格從 2,700 美元下跌，但從 2,400 美元反彈，則表示市場情緒已轉為正面。這將增強反彈至 3,000 美元的前景。
相反，如果價格從當前水準或 2,400 美元大幅下跌，則表示該貨幣對可能會在該區間內停留更長的時間。如果價格跌破 2,100 美元，空頭將處於優勢。
BNB價格分析
BNB (BNB) 於 1 月 31 日跌破 20 日均線（304 美元），但空頭無法突破 50 日均線（297 美元）支撐。
BNB/USDT 日線圖。來源： TradingView
The 20-day EMA has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. A break above the downtrend line will tilt the balance in favor of the buyers. There is a minor resistance at $322, but if crossed, the BNB/USDT pair may soar to $338.
Contrarily, if the price turns lower from the downtrend line, it will indicate that the sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on rallies. That increases the risk of a break below $288.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) turned down from the overhead resistance at $107 on Jan. 30 but rebounded off the moving averages on Feb. 1.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will try to drive the price above $107. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair will complete an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. That may start an up move to $126, which is a strong hurdle, but if the bulls prevail, the next stop could be the pattern target of $134.
If bears want to prevent the upward move, they will have to quickly tug the price below the moving averages. The pair could drop to $80, which is likely to act as a strong support.
XRP price analysis
Sellers yanked XRP (XRP) below the $0.50 support on Jan. 31, but the long tail on the candlestick shows buying at lower levels.
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
A break above the $0.51 resistance could clear the path for a rally to the 20-day EMA ($0.53). The bears are expected to defend this level with vigor. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair could plunge to $0.46.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA. The pair may then travel to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to overcome this obstacle to start a new up move to $0.67.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern for several days, indicating that the bears continue selling on rallies.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattish 20-day EMA ($0.51) and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price maintains above the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to push the ADA/USDT pair to the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will suggest that the short-term downtrend may be over.
The critical level to watch on the downside is $0.46, and then the support line of the channel near $0.40.
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche (AVAX) plunged below the 20-day EMA ($34.29) on Jan. 31, but the bears could not build upon this strength.
AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price climbed above the 20-day EMA on Feb. 2, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers. This increases the likelihood of a break above the channel’s downtrend line. If that happens, the AVAX/USDT pair could start an up move to $44 and subsequently to the crucial resistance at $50.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price reverses direction from the downtrend line and breaks below $32. That will set the stage for a decline to the support line of the channel.
Related: Bitcoin price drops 1.3% in an hour as US payrolls smash estimates
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) for the past few days, but the bears have not been able to challenge the $0.07 support. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers will try to push the price above the 20-day EMA and gain the upper hand in the near term. If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to the downtrend line. This remains the key level to watch out for, as the bears have successfully defended the level for many days.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line, it will indicate that the bears have not given up. The pair may then slide to the $0.07 support. On the other hand, a break above the downtrend line will signal a potential trend change. The pair may then rise to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.
Polkadot price analysis
The bears pulled Polkadot (DOT) below the neckline of the H&S pattern on Jan. 31, but they could not sustain the lower levels.
DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Solid buying by the bulls pushed the price to the 20-day EMA ($6.92) on Feb. 2. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($7.44) will indicate that the bears are losing their grip. That could open the doors for a rally to $8.50.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it will signal that the bears remain active at higher levels. The DOT/USDT pair may consolidate between the 50-day SMA and $6 for a few days.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink’s (LINK) range-bound action resolved to the upside with a breakout above $17.32 on Feb. 2, suggesting that the buyers have overpowered the sellers.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily and will try to pull the price back below the breakout level. If they manage to do that, several aggressive bulls may get trapped. That may result in a fall to the 20-day EMA ($15.38).
Instead, if buyers maintain the price above $17.32, it will suggest a valid breakout. The $17.32 level may then act as a launchpad, propelling the LINK/USDT pair toward the target objective of $21.79.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
