這就是製度週期。
這意味著市場以前從未見過的資金正在湧入市場。 最近該ETF的資金流入已顯示出人們的興趣。
這意味著什麼？ 頂部在哪裡？ ⬇️
在這篇長文中，我將提供一些我對加密貨幣未來幾年的第一手想法，以及我們可能在哪裡尋找本週期的潛在頂部。
我將討論一些重要的主題，這些主題已編號。
1️⃣ 收益遞減
這個主題在過去幾個月裡被討論了很多，但它本質上意味著這次市場將有一個更低的峰值，因為之前牛市週期的回報一直在「遞減」。
遞減意味著前一個峰值比當前峰值有更大的百分比增益。 例如，與週期低點相比，2021 年的峰值漲幅為 2,000%，而 2017 年的峰值漲幅為 12,000%。
然而，如果我正在閱讀這些論點，我會對這個理論感到一些擔憂。
- 收益遞減是可能的，透過這個週期，潛在收益也可能達到 1,900%，相當於 300,000 美元的峰值。 但為什麼仍然關注收益遞減呢？ 該理論背後的有效依據是什麼？ - 如果我們討論收益遞減，為什麼科技股在 2008 年週期和熊市之後會飆升。 比特幣是一項技術進步，能夠探索更大規模的現金流入資產，這使得收益遞減背後的理論顯得站不住腳。 - 如果上一個週期確實被推遲，FTX 作為主要做市商迫使市場停在 69,000 美元，那麼如果比特幣的價格反彈到 80,000 美元、100,000 美元甚至 120,000 美元怎麼辦？ 這樣的反彈意味著本輪牛市的估值將會更高。
歸根究底，認為收益應該不斷遞減的說法是相對有缺陷的。 事實上，我們將能夠消除這個理論。
2️⃣ - 四年週期
這是在先前的周期中一直在變化的市場的另一個關鍵概念。
在這方面，潛在的供需衝擊的影響一直在積極推動比特幣的價格走勢，但那是在宏觀經濟競爭環境並未發揮如此重要作用的時期。現在。 為什麼？ 投資比特幣時會考慮不同的因素。
新的參與者加入市場，通常不關心 60 天後減半； 如果風險偏向某一方，他們需要在某個時候輪換資金。
另一方面，減半將對市場產生巨大影響，但我將簡要討論這一點。
Second, halving itself has a relatively lower impact on the number of cycles happening, as the price of mining one Bitcoin and the value of one are relatively far away from each other, hence why other factors will take their role.
To my current thought process, we'll be seeing the final 'four-year cycle' happening at this point, which means that it will probably be hard to break the upcoming all-time high in the years after.
3️⃣ - The approval of the ETF
Now, this is where things get interesting. The Spot Bitcoin ETF, which has recently been approved, has a magnitude of an impact on the markets, which is not priced in. By a mile.
Much interest was shown in the first few weeks as a few $ billions flowed into the ETFs.
More importantly, the combination of a potential hedge against the US dollar (for multiple reasons) is an argument that many institutions will use to adopt an investment-based approach to having Bitcoin.
In that aspect, the ETF has enabled a bull cycle we won't see for a long time. It's the final 'easy bubble' we'll experience.
🟢 Where is Bitcoin heading?
Bitcoin is heading towards validity across the world and towards a level of safety. The fact that institutions are betting on Bitcoin and are looking to allocate funds towards Bitcoin is not because they truly believe in the actual asset; they rather don't believe in their own financial system or currency.
Remind yourself that the existence of Bitcoin wasn't even a topic if the financial system was as ethical and as fair as it should be. It isn't.
There is a current existential risk of inflation across 3rd world countries leading towards a large influx towards Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole, but there's also a slow, gradual increase of fear surrounding the debt levels of the US government and the potential failure of the financial system there.
That's the underlying fact that institutions are allocating towards Bitcoin (and Gold), and that's also why the Bitcoin halving and the fixed supply theory is a decision-maker to invest into those specific assets as it's safe.
In the previous bull cycles, the markets have anticipated an influx of several new participants. In fact, 2017 was the cycle where retail investors jumped into the markets. In 2021, we've had VCs.
Now, we've got the big boys jumping into the markets, the institutionals.
Where are we heading?
I think we're going into a cycle that we'd remember as the 'Crypto Dot.com' bubble. A cycle where we're not using Crypto as a whole but where the world understands that crypto and Bitcoin are next.
How long does this cycle last? I don't know. It's more a question of how long the liquidity cycle will last. The FED is required to lower the interest rates, so probably until that hits zero and stays there for a few months, the markets will go up. It feels like we're in 1928, when the markets also started to accelerate on thin air, trapping everyone in their decisions.
It could be that we're going to peak at $250,000 or at $600,000. I don't know. Most presumably I think you should erase the theories and expect the markets to go way higher than you think right now, as that's always how markets move.
How long will it last? In the most likely scenario, in Q3/Q4 2025, we'll peak, but if the liquidity remains valid, it might be reasonable to suggest that this bull cycle will last longer until 2026 or 2027.
After that, we'll get a destructive crisis and crash like we've seen in 1929 and 1930, leading towards a decade of deflationary rates, disruption of financial systems, still dealing with high debt levels, but the flight to safety with Bitcoin and Gold and the Bitcoin Standard.
️ Make as much Bitcoin as you can in this bull cycle. Jump away into cash for a little while when the liquidity crash happens, and jump back in Bitcoin after the 80% crash. Don't look at valuations in USD. Look at your purchasing power.
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