場外交易每週交易洞察 (02/29/2024) 

• 本週，柴犬 ($SHIB) 是社群媒體上最受歡迎的硬幣之一。

  SHIB價格自2月26日以來上漲387%，至3月5日為0.00004567，為兩年來最高。

  SHIB價格的拋物線走勢也帶來了對該代幣的大量交易需求。

  現在，以市值計算，SHIB 排名第 11 位，超越 Chainlink ($LINK) 和 Uniswap ($UNI)，比狗狗幣 ($DOGE) 低一位。

• 此外，SHIB 的炒作也蔓延到了其他以狗為主題的代幣，包括 Floki ($FLOKI)。

  Floki 經歷了令人興奮的一周，從 2 月 26 日到 3 月 4 日，一周內上漲了 400%。在社區支持的一項銷毀 2% 代幣供應量的提案之後，價格飆升。

  銷毀代幣的提案得到了社區的壓倒性支持，近 90% 的選票支持該舉措。

• 隨著 meme 幣令人難以置信的價格走勢，ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) 也加入了這個行列。

  PEOPLE 的價格從 2 月 26 日開始上漲，今天 BTC 價格達到 69,000 美元的歷史新高，漲幅達 125%。

整體市場

• 上圖顯示了自 2024 年 1 月底以來的 BTC 價格走勢。

• 今日現貨市場BTC觸及69,000 USDT歷史新高！

• 2021 年 11 月 10 日 BTC 價格觸及 69,000 USDT 後，熊市以一系列市場投降事件拉開序幕，包括 Terra Luna 生態崩盤、三箭資本破產、加密貨幣交易所 FTX 破產等。

  2022年11月21日，比特幣價格在短短一年內就跌至15,476 USDT。

• 儘管比特幣價格在2023年站穩腳步並走高，但矽谷銀行的破產導致比特幣價格回調了22%。

• 自 2023 年初以來，比特幣價格經歷了多次 15% 的回調，最近一次是比特幣現貨 ETF 核准後的拋售。

• 今天，比特幣價格重回歷史高點 69,000 USDT，隨後在現貨市場上五小時內下跌 14.5%，至 59,005 USDT。

  多頭收復了部分損失，目前交易價格為 65,743 USDT。

• 這種波動的交易時段在加密貨幣市場中很正常，我們的團隊觀察到其他山寨幣出現了更大規模的調整，特別是那些在前幾天上漲了一倍、三倍甚至四倍的幣。

• 今天的回調在 59,500 美元附近的紅框區域找到了支撐，如上圖所示。

  這是一個強而有力的支撐區域。

  只要該支撐位完好無損，比特幣價格就可能會繼續上漲。

選擇權市場

• 上表顯示了上週 BTC 期權的 25 δ 偏度。

• The recent Bitcoin price action has resulted in several spikes on the short-term options market (the black line). The skewness reached more than 10 on March 1, when the Bitcoin price soared to $63,500. The increase in skewness suggests that options traders were rushing to build a positive delta position, either by buying calls, selling puts, or a combination of both.

• We saw multiple downside spikes today, indicating the opposite trading action. During the capitulation, when the Bitcoin price fell to $59,000, it appeared that options traders were taking a negative delta position.

• Despite significant fluctuations in the short-tenor options last week, we noticed that the skewness in the mid-to-long-tenor options remained positive at the same level. Nonetheless, options traders remain optimistic about the bitcoin price over the next three to six months. This bullish sentiment could help the BTC move higher and reach a new all-time high in the coming months.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (2024-02-29)

  • In February, Germany's monthly CPI growth rate was 0.4%, lower than the estimated 0.5%. The annualized CPI growth rate fell from 2.9% in January to 2.5% in February, which was lower than the expected 2.6%.

  • In January, the US PCE price index increased by 0.3% month on month, up from 0.1% in December. The annualized PCE price index rose 2.4%, in line with market expectations, slowing from 2.6% in December. The US core PCE price index was also regaining momentum, rising from 0.1% in December to 0.4% in January month on month, as expected. The annualized core PCE price index fell from 2.9% in December to 2.8% in January, as expected. The re-acceleration of PCE price index growth and core PCE price index growth raises the prospect of a June rate cut by the Fed. The US dollar index rose, while the Bitcoin price fluctuated around $62,500.

• Last Friday (2024-03-01)

  • The annual CPI growth rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.6% in February, down from 2.8% in January. However, it exceeded the estimated 2.5% rate. The core CPI growth rate fell from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in February, but it remained higher than the expected 2.9%.

  • In February, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.8, lower than the economists' forecast of 49.5 and further down from January's 49.1. It indicates that the US manufacturing industry has continued to contract.

• On Tuesday (2024-03-05)

  • The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.6, below the economists' forecast of 53.0.

  • The US equity market fell due to a selloff in AI-related stocks, including Microsoft and Adobe, after AI startup Anthropic claimed that its new models, Claude 3, could outperform OpenAI's ChatGPT. The risk-off sentiment has spread to the cryptocurrency market. BTC fell $10,000, or 14.5%, after reaching a new all-time high of 69,000 USDT in the spot market.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• 本週，我們的服務台觀察到 Meme 和 Metaverse 區域的大量交易需求。

• Meme 區的交易量增加了 1,182.1%，主要是由於對柴犬 ($SHIB) 的高需求推動的。

  由於強勁的購買需求，柴犬 ($SHIB) 的價格在過去 7 天內翻了一番。

  狗主題硬幣的流行增加了狗狗幣 ($DOGE) 和 Floki ($FLOKI) 的交易量。

  Meme ($MEME)、ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) 和 Bonk ($BONK) 的交易量也顯著增加。

• 元界專區交易量近7天上漲160.7%。

  Decentraland ($MANA) 和 The Sandbox ($SAND) 是需求增加的主要來源。

• 我們的櫃檯發現 POW 區域的交易量增加了 126.7%。

  隨著比特幣觸及 69,000 美元的歷史新高，比特幣 ($BTC) 和比特幣現金 ($BCH) 的交易量大幅增加，引發了人們對 POW 區貨幣的濃厚興趣。

為什麼進行場外交易？

幣安提供客戶多種方式進行場外交易，包括聊天溝通管道和幣安場外交易平台(https://www.binance.com/en/otc)，手動報價、演算法訂單或透過Binance Convert 自動報價大宗交易平台 (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) 和 Binance Convert OTC API。

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